Analysis

Keeping the EU together in a post-Brexit Europe

Britain’s Brexit vote and its fallout may have halted most other domestic considerations in the UK, but it hasn’t put an end to pan-European political considerations or the domestic interests of the remaining 27 member states, writes Natasha Levanti. 

Since the 1970s the UK has been the ‘peculiar cousin’ in the European family, with four opt-outs in EU treaties, a noted record of opposition despite opting in 2004 to allow Eastern European migration, and a rebate on membership fees. Its withdrawal may mean more member state synchronicity in policy, particularly in monetary regulations, familial working rights, EU law or judicial structures, and other policy focuses that tend to see UK opposition.

The European Union will head into the negotiations with the preservation of the European project in mind, putting the free movement of goods, capital, services and people as a priority. This stance is seen in Switzerland, where despite a referendum and months of discussion on an EU migration cap, after the UK vote it was declared that there would be no compromise on freedom of movement. 

To preserve the European project, the EU must negotiate with rising populism and political protest in mind, seizing this as an opportunity for reform. Throughout the negotiations for UK withdrawal, the EU must make European politics accessible, in order to show that EU membership brings an added value to the lives of citizens. Without achieving this, populism and political protest will continue to rise, fracturing the European project.

The 27 member states each have their own objectives, of which, most common is the objective to mitigate populism, creating disincentive for those wishing to leverage the UK’s withdrawal to significantly disrupt or alter domestic politics.

With Slovakia in the presidency for the next six months during which article 50 may be invoked, Slovakia’s prime minister Fico’s disquiet at the six founding member states meeting post-referendum will impact the withdrawal process set; prioritising increased transparency and the involvement of all member states in the withdrawal negotiations.

Member state agendas were made clear alongside the European Council meeting on 28 June, with Brexit being one of many items on the European political agenda. Stabilisation of the Eurozone was a priority, due to banking turmoil in Spain, Greece, and Italy. Yet the need to mitigate rising populism or political protest was a clear theme throughout all agendas, due to Brexit.

Rising populism in the domestic politics of Denmark, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Austria has prompted assertions that no talks on freedom of movement will occur prior to article 50 being invoked. Even Germany, a strong supporter of European integration, has seen a more sceptical electorate in the last 18 months, as the Greek crisis of 2015 sparked EU reform discussions. 

Domestic elections are set for 2017 in France, Germany and the Netherlands, for which. The more exemptions from EU freedoms that the UK gets in its withdrawal, the stronger populist or protest parties will become in these elections. Similarly, in Italy’s upcoming referendum on the upper house, if protest or populist sentiment increases and the vote is lost, the current government will likely resign, sparking further European unrest.

While the UK will enter the process keen for the best combination of access and exceptions, the remaining member states will negotiate UK withdrawal in a way which dampens national populism and is done in parallel with EU reforms to steady the political and economic conditions for all involved, not just the UK. 

Natasha Levanti is the founder and editor at European Public Affairs, a professional forum providing analysis and commentary on European politics, policy and strategic developments.