News

UK congestion to rise 63% by 2030 – faster than in France, Germany and US.

Investment in transport infrastructure and technology vital to control rising cost of gridlock

Congestion

The cost of traffic congestion in the UK is set to climb some 63% by 2030 to a staggering £21bn a year as demand for urban living and the need for transport continues to soar.

In comparison, congestion in the US is set to rise 50% by 2030 and in France and Germany is predicted to climb by just 31% over the same period.

And in particular, the work by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) highlights that the cost of congestion in London is set to rise by 71% to over £9bn by 2030, climbing faster than comparable cities of Paris, Los Angeles and Stuttgart.

“Technological innovations like multi-modal routing and real-time traffic management have been made possible by big data analytics and the growth of the Internet of Things, using road capacity more intelligently and, thus, creating ‘smarter' cities."

The study published this week also points out that by 2030 the cumulative cost of not tackling congestion in the UK will reach £300bn, of which £190bn is the direct cost of fuel and wasted time.

The findings come from a study of the economic and environmental costs associated with road congestion in the UK, France, Germany and the USA, and in the most congested cities in these countries. It analyses the costs imposed by gridlock on our roads for the years, 2013, 2020, 2025 and 2030, and estimates that road users spend, on average, 36 hours in gridlock every year in metropolitan areas across these four countries.

However, the studies points out that when you add in the additional time spent planning to avoid congestion, the figure rises to 111 hours wasted each year. 

Continued growth in urban populations and the escalating demand for business and leisure travel means that time spent by each of us in traffic jams is likely to increase by 6% each year between 2013 and 2030, therefore accounting for an additional 6.8 hours wasted in gridlock every year.

“Our findings suggest that total economy-wide costs across all four advanced economies are forecast to rise from $200.7bn (£126bn) in 2013 to $293.1bn (£185bn) by 2030 – a 46% increase in the costs imposed by congestion,” says the report. 

“The total cumulative costs over the 17 years, across all four countries, amounts to $4.4 trillion (£2.8 trillion).”

London, say the report, will face a cumulative congestion cost over the years to 2030 of £130bn, three times that of Stuttgart. However both Paris and Los Angeles face a greater cost of gridlock of £170bn and £353bn respectively by 2030.

The report urges national and local government to continue to invest in transport infrastructure so as to provide increased transport options and so minimise costs and the drain on the economy from congestion.

“Neither can technology-based demand management solutions be overlooked, especially if one accepts that traffic will continue to grow and congestion to increase, even though car ownership rates are showing signs of decline,” says the report.

“Technological innovations like multi-modal routing and real-time traffic management have been made possible by big data analytics and the growth of the Internet of Things, using road capacity more intelligently and, thus, creating ‘smarter’ cities,” it adds.

If you would like to contact Antony Oliver about this, or any other story, please email antony.oliver@infrastructure-intelligence.com.