Comment

Could Tory conference infrastructure glow be dimmed by need for airport capacity decision?

The flurry of recent infrastructure investment announcements for Hinkley Point, Norther Powerhouse and HS2 will no doubt continue at next week’s Tory party conference. Yet the difficult and divisive decision over where to build the UK’s next runway still hangs heavy, says Antony Oliver

Antony Oliver, Infrastructure Intelligence editor

Next week the 2015 political conference season culminates with the Conservative Party’s gathering in Manchester. It seems highly likely, given Chancellor George Osborne’s on-going and very welcome interest in infrastructure investment as an economic accelerator, that we will be treated next week to yet more announcements to boost progress on the nation’s vital major projects.

The question is what might these announcements be? What is left to say?

"Could David Cameron and George Osborne use the post-Election, Corbyn fuelled Tory euphoria of Manchester to finally tackle this thorny issue and lance the boil of indecision."

Already this week we have seen reinstatement of the recently paused investment in rail electrification on the TransPennine and Midland Mainline railways, to underpin transport in the north and cementing the government’s Northern Powerhouse ambition. 

Despite delivery timescales slipping into the next control period, this decision will no doubt create a vital and welcome good feeling across the Manchester conference floor next week as Tory’s celebrate their newly acquired independence from coalition and resounding parliamentary majority. 

Perhaps there more to add? Well we also already saw Osborne kick off the procurement process for construction of phase 1 of High Speed 2 between London and Birmingham last week during his tour of China. 

Notwithstanding the fact that there is still some way to go before planning hurdles are overcome, engaging and planning early was the watch word as he urged the global infrastructure supply chain to get involved in the UK’s major design and construction opportunities. Could there be phase 2 acceleration announcement?

Then there was the Hinkley Point C progress in the form of the Chancellor’s announcement of £2bn loan guarantees as he looks to accelerate the UK's nuclear construction programme currently being driven by state backed French power company and its Chinese backers. Expectation is that deals will be signed.

"As we heard at this week’s ICE London Big Debate on aviation capacity, it is a decision which after many decades of discussion, still remains firmly in the too politically difficult basket."

And with Thames Tideway already up and running, Highways England ploughing ahead and the National Infrastructure Plan for Skills published there is only really one major blot remaining on the government’s infrastructure copy book.

It is, of course, that outstanding and high controversial decision over how to respond to Sir Howard Davies’ Aviation Commission’s recent report and recommendation over where to expand the south east’s runway capacity.

As we heard at this week’s ICE London Big Debate on aviation capacity, it is a decision which after many decades of discussion, still remains firmly in the too politically difficult basket. But it is a decision that remains long overdue.

So could David Cameron and George Osborne use the post-Election, Corbyn fuelled Tory euphoria of Manchester to finally tackle this thorny issue and lance the boil of indecision.

On the one hand, given the number of senior Tories, including the London Mayor and probable future Mayor, who have nailed their colours to the mast in opposition to Davies recommended Heathrow expansion option, it might seem something of a party-pooping message. 

On the other hand Davies makes a pretty strong economic case for getting on and building a third runway – a message that businesses across the UK would support. And a decision now would also put quite a bit of time for arguments to diffuse ahead of the London Mayoral election in May.

Don’t forget also that the option to green light investment at Gatwick –instead of or as well as Heathrow - remains firmly on the table as a credible political and economic plan. 

It could happen yet. Then again, maybe the best (easiest) political solution might still be to do nothing until we are firmly in the new year. We shall see.

If you would like to contact Antony Oliver about this, or any other story, please email antony.oliver@infrastructure-intelligence.com.